Improving Blackjack Odds
This is how I would recommend you play your hard 16, assuming surrender is not available, to improve your playing precision for this hand: BLACKJACK ODDS: 12 AGAINST A DEALER 4. Another hand where your strategy is dependent upon the makeup of the cards is a starting total of 12 against a dealer’s 4 upcard in games with S17. This item: Blackjack: The Secrets of Blackjack Strategy to Improve Your Odds of WINNING BIG - ( Casino by Duke Landrey Paperback $17.99 Ships from and sold by Amazon.com. FREE Shipping on orders over $25.00. To win at blackjack, you need to get closer to 21 than the dealer, without going over. That sounds basic, but a key to blackjack for beginners is understanding the odds and basic strategy of when.
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Blackjack Probability and Blackjack Odds
To fully understand the game of blackjack, you must understand and master blackjack odds. It's crucial to know how the casino gains its edge and how it helps them win. It's also important to understand blackjack odds such as the odds of hitting a 10 or the odds of being dealt a blackjack. You can read over these blackjack odds charts to help understand the logistics behind blackjack.
Casino and Dealer Advantage in Blackjack
In most casino games of blackjack, the house advantage (the dealer advantage) is ~ 8%. The house gets this advantage by the dealer being the last player to act. By acting last, all other players have already made their decisions and could quite possibly bust before the dealer has his turn.
By using correct blackjack basic strategy, you can turn the casino edge in blackjack from 7%-8% down to 0.5%. If you correctly use advanced card counting techniques, you can often change blackjack odds and give yourself the advantage over the casino. Manipulating the house odds to your favor is the reason most casinos don't allow card counters to play blackjack.
Probability of Busting on a Hit
It's very important to know the probability of your hand busting when you are holding any total in the game of blackjack. The following odds chart shows the blackjack odds of busting, depending on your current hand value:
| Hand Value | % Bust If You Hit |
|---|---|
| 21 | 100% |
| 20 | 92% |
| 19 | 85% |
| 18 | 77% |
| 17 | 69% |
| 16 | 62% |
| 15 | 58% |
| 14 | 56% |
| 13 | 39% |
| 12 | 31% |
| 11 or Less | 0% |
Two-Card Count Frequencies
This interesting blackjack odds chart is the two card count frequency chart. This chart shows the percentage chance that you will be dealt a hand in each given value range. The most important frequencey to note is the chance of being dealt a natural blackjack (natural 21 value. The odds of being dealt a natural blackjack are merely 4.8%. Following this chart you will see that the most common two card hand, at 38.7%, is a hand totaling 1-16, which is considered a decision hand.
| Two Card Count | % Frequency |
|---|---|
| Natural 21 | 4.8% |
| Hard Standing (17-20) | 30.0 % |
| Decision Hands (1-16) | 38.7% |
| No Bust | 26.5% |
| TOTAL | 100.0% |
Dealer Final Hand Probabilities
Improving Blackjack Odds Poker
This blackjack odds chart shows the dealer final hand probability. These are the percentages that the dealer will end up with a hand totaling each corresponding value (up to 16). Read over this chart to understand the odds that the dealer has to make his final hand.
| Dealer Final Hand Value | % | Cumulative % Total |
|---|---|---|
| Natural 21 | 4.82% | 4.83% |
| 21 (3 or More Cards) | 7.36% | 12.19% |
| 20 | 17.58% | 29.77% |
| 19 | 13.48% | 43.25% |
| 18 | 13.81% | 57.06% |
| 17 | 14.58% | 71.64% |
| 16 | 28.36% | 100.00% |
Player Advantage vs. Dealer Up Card
The first two columns in this odds chart explain the dealer's chance of busting, depending on the up card that he is showing. You should note that the dealer has the highest chance of busting when he is showing a 5. The third column in this chart shows the player advantage of using basic strategy, compared to each up card the dealer is showing. You can see that the player has the highest advantage of 23.9%, when the dealer is showing a 5. When the dealer is showing any card that is 9 value or higher, the player is in the negative advantage range.
| Dealer Up Card | Dealer Bust % | Player Advantage % with Basic Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 35.30% | 9.8% |
| 3 | 37.56% | 13.4% |
| 4 | 40.28% | 18.0% |
| 5 | 42.89% | 23.2% |
| 6 | 42.08% | 23.9% |
| 7 | 25.99% | 14.3% |
| 8 | 23.86% | 5.4% |
| 9 | 23.34% | -4.3% |
| J,Q,K | 21.43% | -16.9% |
| A | 11.65% | -16.0% |
Effects of Removing Cards from a Deck
When looking at the odds of removing certain cards from a 52-card deck, some cards have a much greater effect on blackjack odds. To create the strongest card counting system ever invented, you would have to incorporate all of these slight and subtle differences into the numbers to be a completely accurate system.
Removing every 5 from a deck cards would make the largest impact of improving your blackjack odds, as a player. On the other hand, removing every Ace from a deck of cards would make the largest impact on improving the odds for the casino.
| Card | % Effect of Removal |
|---|---|
| 2 | 0.40% |
| 3 | 0.43% |
| 4 | 0.52% |
| 5 | 0.67% |
| 6 | 0.45% |
| 7 | 0.30% |
| 8 | 0.01% |
| 9 | -0.15% |
| 10 | -0.51% |
| A | -0.59% |
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Getting better at blackjack requires optimal strategy to maximize your EV. It is not necessary to count cards to make this happen. You can sustain a solid win rate if you know how to play your hands and manage your bankroll. The house edge against a recreational player is roughly 4-5% on average. Meanwhile, it is possible to give the house a sub-1% edge if you have optimal strategy. Odds-wise, blackjack can be the most profitable game for a gambler that knows how to play well.
Learn Basic Blackjack Strategy
Many advanced strategies exist. You need to learn how to approach all different scenarios to maximize your win rate. Before you get too far ahead, start with learning basic blackjack strategy.
When to Hit vs. Stand
888casino offers a thorough hit or stand guide… You should reference this material when figuring out which approach makes more sense. The right decision is calculable but there are too many variables to cover every situation. The linked guide includes charts for 1 through 8 deck blackjack and also factors in specific playing rules. Remember, not every casino plays by the same rules. Your advantage will decrease if you fail to factor in the differences. It will be difficult to memorize all the different playing strategies. Focus on playing only where the rules are the same until you get enough experience to adjust to any ruleset.
Learn When to Surrender
First, it is important to know the different types of “surrendering” in blackjack. You have the “early surrender” and the “late surrender”. Early surrendering is not common in American casinos but it does exist in Asia and Europe. The early surrender lets the player give up the hand when the dealer has a 10-value card or an Ace.The difference is that the hand is forfeited before the dealer checks for blackjack. The late surrender lets you give up the hand after the dealer checks for blackjack. You can lower the house’s advantage by late surrendering at the right time. Executing this strategy at a multi-deck table will create a 0.07% odds difference in your favor. Refer to the Wizard of Odds “when to surrender” page for more insight.
Learn When to Split
Improving Blackjack Odds Against
Splitting pairs is an incredible way to increase your profitability. Typically speaking, you will have more value in splitting if the casino lets you “double after splitting” (DAS). If the rule is “no double after splitting” (NDAS) it will be less beneficial to split pairs.
The ideology behind splitting is as follows:
• On average, you stand to win a greater amount.
You already have a hand that is the favorite to win. Let’s use a pair of 10s as the example. In this scenario, pretend the dealer has a pair of 8s. The dealer must hit under 17 and will bust on anything higher than a 5 card. The dealer must stand over 17 which makes for few cases where the hand ends in a draw or the dealer wins. Your strategy here is to split the 10s and then play them like normal hands. You can re-split (if allowed) on equally strong hands to maximize your return on investment. The more hands you can create that put you as the winning favorite—the greater you reduce the house’s edge.
• On average, you stand to lose less.
A defensive strategy of splitting hands that are likely to lose can pay off. Pretend you have a pair of 7s and face up against the dealer’s 2 card. You will only win 36% of these hands. If you split the cards you have the potential to change the odds. You win roughly 45% of the hands you play when you get a 7 to start the hand. Thus, you will lose less money in the long run if you play defensively and split your hand.
• Your losing hand could become a winner.
It can be profitable to split a hand that is likely to lose if it means having a better chance to win the hand. You must consider what is better against the dealer’s upcard—your current hand or the one you have if you choose to split. A good example of this is a pair of 7s versus the dealer’s 6 card. 14 is very weak to stand on but hitting is a bad idea because you are likely going to bust. Splitting your 7s will give you the ability to start your two hands with 7 versus 6 instead. You win 52% of the time here which makes it a profitable play.
Learn When to Double
The option to double your bet comes at a cost. You will only receive one card. You can usually double down on all hands but some casinos only allow you to do it if you start with a 10 or 11 count. Doubling on 11 makes complete sense. Doubling on 10 is good if the dealer’s upcard is a 9 or lower. You should avoid doubling down if the dealer has an Ace. You do not have an advantage here and the dealer could have blackjack. Check out casino.org’s basic guide to doubling down to learn more.
Other Factors for Profiting at Blackjack
Improving Blackjack Odds Games
People who study blackjack want to be long-term winners. The right strategies can help you dramatically increase your win rate. The other side of the coin is how you manage your bankroll. Why? Because, you need to be able to stand up against variance.
Consider variance when managing your bankroll.
A player with all the right strategies will only come out a winner 42% of the time. 8% of sessions will be breakeven. The remaining 50% will be a loss. These stats make it seem that your bankroll only needs to have a few buy-ins. But, it’s like flipping a coin and landing on the same side—this will happen four times in a row 1 in 16 times. If your bankroll only has four buy-ins, you have a 6.25% chance of busting your roll. Here are some rules of thumb for proper bankroll management…
• Your maximum bet should be 4-6x your normal bet.
• Your session bankroll should be 30-40x your normal bet.
• Your reserve bankroll should be 1,000-1,400x your normal bet.
By these standards, you start with roughly 33 session bankrolls. Your bankroll management strategy should be dynamic. Your bet size should go down if your reserve bankroll drops below a certain point. Likewise, it should increase if your bankroll goes above a set level. For example, you might want to increase or decrease your bet size by 20% when your bankroll fluctuates by that amount.
Conclusion
Improving Blackjack Odds Game
Being able to win at blackjack takes patience to learn the game. It’s all about knowing probability. Plus, understanding how to manipulate the outcome of any hand for your advantage. Counting cards or cheating at blackjack will not work out in the long run. Take the time to learn the game at an advanced level and increase your chance of being a winning player.